'We cannot underestimate the danger posed by the Houthis, ' A specialist on Yemen discusses the situation in Red Sea

Yemen's Houthis repeatedly attempt to strike Israel through rocket attacks, drones, and attacks on Israeli ships. Who are the Houthis? Why are they getting involved in the Gaza war? What is their relationship with Iran? We asked Inbal Nissim-Lufton, a specialist on Yemen and a researcher at the Regional Thinking Forum, to provide her answers to these questions.

Interviewed by Gabi Wolfson.

Let's start by saying a few words about Yemen. Who controls it today, and what is happening there these days?

Since 2014, Yemen has been in a state of civil war after Houthi fighters seized control there. In early 2015, Saudi Arabia joined the war, leading an international coalition, and from that moment, the civil war turned into a regional one. We see two blocs – on one side, the Houthis, who have been receiving increasingly active and noticeable assistance from Iran, and on the other side, government forces or those who support the power ousted by the Houthis. These forces acted in alliance with several other groups, such as separatists in the south of the country, and received support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other coalition countries.

There has been a relative ceasefire for almost two years. This does not mean there are no military actions; however, their intensity has noticeably decreased. Negotiations on a permanent settlement of the conflict have been ongoing in Riyadh for several months. Occasionally, outbreaks of violence occur, but they are noticeably less brutal than before.

But the war is not over.

The war is not over, and the UN has already declared that in 2023, Yemen was the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

And the Houthis continue to hold power in the country.

They do in most populated areas of Yemen, including the strip along the Red Sea towards the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. In the opposite direction, towards Aden, Oman, and Iran, the territory is controlled by coalition forces and southern separatists, and, at one point, even supporters of Al-Qaeda.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis began operating in the 1980s and 1990s. Initially, there were a few dozen members of the al-Houthi clan from the northern province of Saada. Gradually, they gathered supporters around them. Their activities were focused on the social sphere. They built youth centers, schools, and things like that. Another goal was the revival of Shiite Zaydism. This branch of Shia Islam differs from what we see in Iran; it is perhaps the most pragmatic branch of Shia Islam. It is important to note that the alliance between the Houthis and Iran is less based on religious identity, as they belong to very different branches. The Houthi movement emerged as a movement for religious revival with socio-economic elements. They repeatedly complained to the central authorities about economic and political discrimination. They thought their region needed more funds and needed to be adequately represented in the institutions of power. Protests gradually became more aggressive, turning violent in 2004. Until 2010, there were six rounds of escalation between the Houthis and local authorities, known as the Sa'dah War, named after the district where this movement originated. In 2011, they joined the uprising as part of the Arab Spring but quickly realized they could not achieve their goals. In 2014, they decided to take power by force, as they understood that diplomatic steps would not yield results, and with the help of the president, who was initially against them but later sided with them, they gradually took control of the power structures and most of the territory. This led to a civil war, which basically continues to this day.

Let's talk a bit about the connection between the Houthis and Iran. You say it is not based on religious identity. Then, on what?

Iran's relations with the Houthis evolved over time. Until 2009, or perhaps until 2010, Iran wasn't particularly interested in the Houthis. At least, all the research indicates that during the Sa'dah Wars, the Houthis operated independently without Iran's support. Iran began to take an interest in the Houthis and consider them potential allies only at the start of the Arab Spring. Then, Iranians started teaching, training, and supplying them with weapons. Initially, there were shipments of batches of firearms and ammunition. Later, when sea delivery became complicated, Iran started to send dismantled weapons and teach the Houthis to manufacture weapons on its own. So, the ties gradually strengthened, especially by the end of 2017, when the Houthis no longer needed President Ali Abdullah Saleh, and they killed him. After that, the connection with Iran became official and public. Iran, of course, denies allegations of supplying weapons to the Houthis. However, for example, in 2013, Americans seized a ship with weapons intended for the Houthis, and it is well known that Iran continues weapon shipments through Oman to Yemen.

When did the Houthis begin to show interest in Israel and the conflict with the Palestinians?

Their interest in Israel is related to the radicalization processes that this movement undergoes. When the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, the slogan "Allah is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam" was first used. Since 2003, the movement has been associated with a very strong anti-Western, anti-American, anti-Israeli, and even anti-Jewish sentiment. So, if you ask why they are meddling in the war in Gaza, the answer can be divided into three parts. First of all, it is an alliance with Iran and shared interests. Besides, there is real solidarity with the Palestinians and the opportunity to demonstrate this solidarity through such actions. But there are a few more aspects. Firstly, this way, they elevate their status in Yemen. There is a lot of criticism of how they govern the country. But as they support the Palestinians, even the forces that hate the Houthi cannot make any claims against them.

Moreover, it's become a challenge for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. It's a bad look. Big and powerful countries do not provide enough assistance to the Palestinians, whereas our tiny movement from the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula does. They want to demonstrate strength to Saudi Arabia and other countries as if to say: "We are negotiating now but know that if the negotiations fail or collapse for some reason, we have enough capabilities to resume military actions."

How well-armed are they? How dangerous are they?

First and foremost, we have seen several attempts to attack Israeli territory from the air. Israel has successfully thwarted these attempts, so that's probably why they decided to focus on attacks in the Red Sea. They control an extensive strip along the Red Sea coast. They can influence maritime trade, affecting the movement of commercial ships through straits, mainly through the Bab-el-Mandeb – a crucial trade route, including for Israel. They concentrate their efforts on this direction, trying to annoy Israel as much as they can and disrupt the normal functioning of maritime trade. I don't know how much of a threat it is to the state's existence, but it can undoubtedly create obstacles and difficulties.

As many believe, maritime traffic may become a problem not only for Israel. If they accidentally or intentionally attack a ship from a Western country or a U.S. destroyer – it will already become an international problem. There is another thing about the Houthis. Unlike many of our politicians, they fulfill their promises. If they vow to attack and act in a certain way, they will do it. They have repeatedly demonstrated that during the nine years of war with Saudi Arabia. If they promise to do something, they will do it. From this perspective, we must take them seriously.

Do you find the publication about their use of ballistic missiles credible?

Yes. They have used both сruise and ballistic missiles. Today, I read they used surface-to-surface missiles. In general, I would not advise treating them with disdain or underestimating their military potential. Considering the point at which they started the war in 2014, their success is impressive, no matter how you look at it. This is why they shouldn't be viewed as 'tribes' or 'savages in jellabiyas.' It's both false and dangerous. The Houthis should not be underestimated.

What is their strength? How many of them are there?

Different estimates mention 200-250 thousand people. Additionally, they receive support from various groups and often use children for combat activities. By the way, we talked about armament. They use mines extensively. It's been reported that since the beginning of the war in 2014, they have laid over a million mines in Yemen, including the sea.

It is no longer just an Israeli problem, but an international one.

Yes, and frankly, I am surprised that until recently, people had thought of it as only an Israeli problem. When a British ship was seized, Japan and several other countries demanded the release of hostages. After the attack on an American military vessel, the U.S. might become more engaged. As far as I know, American politicians are discussing the possibility of re-designating the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a terrorist organization. There were such talks during the final stages of President Trump's term.

No decision has been made yet?

No. Trump initiated such a move but couldn't see it through. Besides, there were many objections against it. Some argued that such a designation significantly limits negotiation possibilities, as it's nearly impossible to reach an agreement when dealing with an organization declared terrorist.

How did the Houthis affect or were affected by the process of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

I want to tell you that if someone had said a few years ago to someone familiar with the region that Saudi Arabia would host representatives of the Houthis in its capital, they would have been considered crazy. But years of war and the feeling that they are stuck there, like Americans in Vietnam, influenced Mohammed bin Salman's readiness to start negotiations. Ultimately, he has enough things he wants to do without being distracted by this annoying war with the Houthis. By the way, quite recently – even before the attack on the military ship – the Americans offered the Houthis significant money for not interfering in the war in Gaza, including funds for the salaries of government employees. However, this peaceful tone quickly faded.

The Red Sea is well-known for being an area of Somali pirates. Do we know anything about their cooperation with the Houthis?

I don't know about cooperation but can't rule it out. Piracy has been thriving in this region for a very long time. The Houthis and other Yemeni groups have long engaged in capturing ships with citizens of European countries on board. They kidnapped people to force the governments of these countries to negotiate with the central authority in Yemen regarding the demands made by the Houthis. In this same region, ships of the United Arab Emirates operate, protecting sea routes from Somali and Yemeni pirates. It is possible that these days, cooperation is strengthening between Israel and the Emirates to ensure maritime security in the Red Sea.

Let's go back to our war. Currently, the Houthi intervention is limited. Can the situation change? We've already discussed the weapons they possess.

Such a possibility undoubtedly exists, and in this context, it's important to remember that the Houthis are not blind executors of Iran's will.

That's an important point.

They aren't. This isn't a proxy relationship. The Houthis are a local Yemeni force, an organic part of the country. They originated in Yemen, formed in Yemen, and fight for interests organically tied to Yemen. The Houthis have the support of part of Yemen's population. They are not some external force dumped into Yemen. They have taken multiple steps that did not directly align with Iran's interests so that they may do so again. Therefore, if they conclude that a particular action serves their interests in Yemen, they will take it, even if it is disadvantageous to Iran. So, even though their use of strategic weapons might seem less realistic now, I wouldn't ignore their potential and their inclination to strike Israel. They might pose a danger in the future.