Gabi Wolfson continues to provide Friday overviews of the political situation.
This week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Israel. The official statements released after his meetings with Israeli leaders were diplomatic and did not provoke irritation even among the most radical politicians in the current coalition. "We are not setting a deadline for you," said Austin. However, behind the scenes, pressure on Israel—with demands to either stop the war or shift to a less intense phase—continues to mount. Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, and Yoav Gallant, the triumvirate articulating the strategy and tactics of this war, unanimously declare that it will continue until victory. Nevertheless, external pressure, combined with the need to address the hostage problem, may lead to a change in the cabinet's plans. The ambiguity about the war's duration, coupled with the awareness that the election campaign has already begun, results in military and political clocks influencing each other. Cynics would add that it's unclear which influence is stronger.
Netanyahu and Sa'ar: Mutually beneficial opposition
This week, a report surfaced indicating that the process of rapprochement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister Gideon Sa'ar has entered a new phase. Netanyahu allegedly is preparing a plan to bring Sa'ar back into the Likud, or, as described by sources close to the prime minister, intends to offer Sa'ar and lawmakers from Tikva Hadasha an opportunity to return to the Likud. The public goal of such a move is to ensure the government's survival in the event of Benny Gantz's anticipated departure from the coalition. Sa'ar's response was quick. The gist of what he said was: "Thank you, not interested."
Netanyahu and Sa'ar need each other, and even more so, they need publications about their rapprochement. Both have been in politics long enough to understand two main starting points of the current situation. The first is simple—Gideon Sa'ar wants to pave a path that will allow him to return to the Likud. This does not mean he will rush to use this path; there are too many uncertainties about what the political system will look like when decisions need to be made for him to rush anywhere. But an experienced politician never sleeps in a room with only one way out. Sa'ar understands well that, despite the apparent loss of popularity, Netanyahu's position in the Likud is still very strong. The rehabilitation Sa'ar needs in the eyes of the Likud members requires restoring relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Sa'ar would most like to see himself in the role of Ariel Sharon on the night of May 17, 1999, when Netanyahu suffered a resounding defeat from Ehud Barak. The Likud leader then announced that he was taking a time-out from politics. Only Sharon was by his side, and you know the rest. At the moment, it's challenging to imagine Sa'ar returning to the Likud as long as Netanyahu leads the party. Options for an alliance with Naftali Bennett or Yair Lapid seem much more logical. But everything depends on Sa'ar's ambitions. If he still aims for the prime minister's office, he will have to return to the Likud.
The second obvious starting point is the impracticability of the current coalition government. Setting aside the internal contradictions to be discussed later, it is entirely evident that the "right, and only right government" has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Even if Netanyahu wanted to fully rely on Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Avi Maoz – and he never really did – he wouldn't be able to afford it. When almost 70% of Israelis advocate for holding elections, the prime minister has two options: either ensure that the war does not end or seek partners for negotiations to form a national unity government. This week, the head of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman, accused Benjamin Netanyahu on Radio REKA of deliberately prolonging the war for his political survival. Discussions about the possibility of Gideon Sa'ar's return to the Likud hinted at the possibility of a national unity government. The chances of its existence after the war are elusive, but talks about it are currently equally advantageous for both Netanyahu and Sa'ar.
Right-wing rebellion: from ideology to politics
Tensions rise within the coalition, as the war approaches a turning point, where statements become more dubious and actions are increasingly influenced by a complex set of motives rather than just a righteous desire to punish evil. Initially, the right-wing was not thrilled with the idea that Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot joined the cabinet for military operations, while Smotrich and Ben-Gvir did not. However, as long as the war unfolded according to the scenarios favored by members of the Religious Zionism Party and Otzma Yehudit, dissatisfaction was only murmured. Now, with talks of a new one- or two-week ceasefire and Prime Minister insisting, according to Smotrich, on transferring funds to the Palestinian Authority, along with statements that Israel has no intention of taking civilian control of the Gaza Strip, the right has found a position for a counterattack to regain voters.
The situation is particularly complex for the Religious Zionism Party. The post of the finance minister has never added popularity to politicians, especially during wartime when unpopular measures must be taken. Coalition funds, which are insignificant in amount but harmful in terms of the image, benefited Smotrich's voters, but overall, his ratings noticeably declined. Bureaucratic obstacles hindering assistance to businesses affected by the war dealt an additional blow to the popularity of the finance minister. According to some polls, his party does not pass the electoral threshold, meaning he urgently needs to regain the electorate's support. The best way to do this is to start demonstrating ideological firmness.
Smotrich is in a win-win position when he criticizes Netanyahu for negotiations with Hamas. On one hand, Netanyahu cannot fire him because he has no alternative. On the other hand, Smotrich has no intention of going anywhere since being in the opposition is not appealing, and his party does not expect anything good at the polling stations. Thirdly, by staying in the coalition as finance minister, he gets the opportunity to influence the allocation of funds, which is as important as showing ideological resilience.
Itamar Ben-Gvir acts similarly, but, in his usual manner, much sharper and more brutal than Smotrich. Surprisingly or not, his efforts pay off. In the right-wing camp, there are talks that Smotrich's mandates are leaking not to Sa'ar or Bennett or Yossi Cohen, but precisely to Itamar Ben-Gvir. The head of Otzma Yehudit continues to demand integration into the war cabinet and threatens to leave the coalition if the war is paused. According to this logic, the better Ben-Gvir's situation in polls, the more realistic it is that he will take this extravagant step to provoke elections. Netanyahu understands this. Nevertheless, at the moment, it is hard to imagine the coalition collapsing due to various moves on the right wing or the issue of the municipal election date.
Municipal election date: Religious Zionism Party vs. Shas
This week politicians continued discussing the possible date of municipal elections. As of today, they are expected to take place on January 30. However, the Religious Zionism Party and Otzma Yehudit are actively demanding to postpone them. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's motives are simple and clear. Many of their voters and candidates are currently on reserve duty and won't be able to participate in the elections. However, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel (Shas) accused Smotrich of manipulation. "Check the data, and you'll see that I attended as much reservist training as Smotrich. He's trying to substitute state interests with narrow party interests and delay the elections just because polls currently aren't looking good for his party," said Arbel.
Despite the Interior Minister's position, political circles are convinced that Shas chairman Aryeh Deri will support the bill to postpone the election date if such a bill is proposed. United Torah Judaism party, in turn, supports Smotrich's proposal.
The issue of the election date has become another point of contention between the Likud and Religious Zionism. This week, no fewer than 100 heads of municipalities, as well as local and regional councils, published a letter to the Interior Minister urging not to postpone the election date. Among the signatories is the Lod Mayor Yair Revivo, whose brother Eliyahu Revivo is a Knesset member from the Likud. Parties in the national camp accuse the Likud of attempting to ensure victory for its candidates in municipal elections through forbidden methods. Undoubtedly, this issue will impact the already complex atmosphere within the government coalition.
All quiet on the opposition front
Benny Gantz is approaching the moment when he will have to make a decision. Leaving the coalition once the active phase of the war ends, which seems to happen in the not-too-distant future, appears to be a rational step. Gantz joined the coalition during the war, and he has no intention of being an "insurance agent" for Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition. On the other hand, members of the Blue and White party understand that elections now won't guarantee success. Sa'ar will go his own way, different from Gantz's, and will take with him a large part of the electorate. Meanwhile, Yair Lapid's party will launch an attack on Benny Gantz which itself will cost some mandates. If we take into consideration that the ranks of the left-wing camp are rapidly reorganizing, one can understand why Gantz is not rushing with statements about his swift exit from the coalition. Nevertheless, in the political system, it is assumed that it will be challenging for him to persuade those in his party who call for his exit from Netanyahu's government.
Another misunderstanding occurred this week in the Yesh Atid party when a member of the Knesset Moshe Tur-Paz stated at a meeting with residents of the south that the outcome of the war should be the extension of sovereignty over several kilometers of Gaza's territory. According to Tor-Paz, this alone will show Hamas and the entire Arab world that there is a price for attacking Israel. Yair Lapid did not comment on his faction colleague's words. On his part, he spoke at the online conference of the Berl Katznelson Foundation and pledged allegiance to the principle of two states. Undoubtedly, this principle is much closer to his voters than Moshe Tor-Paz's idea.
Avigdor Lieberman continued his sharp attacks on Netanyahu and the government this week. Despite this, the head of Yisrael Beiteinu refrains from calling for immediate elections. In an interview with Radio REKA, he called for elections "immediately after the end of the war."
On the left flank, Meretz showed signs of life. This week, the leaders of the left reached an agreement with the Knesset on the repayment schedule for the debt hanging over the party due to its failure in the elections. However, despite this, Meretz will apparently seek the opportunity to participate jointly with the Labor Party and additional forces in the next elections. Meretz's members understand well that it will be very difficult for them to overcome the electoral threshold independently, and they are not inclined to repeat the mistakes of past elections.
