As we look ahead to the elections for the 26th Knesset, it's clear that the party landscape will be significantly different from today. The key theme will be "unification." On the left, efforts will focus on avoiding past mistakes and consolidating votes. The picture is less clear on the right, but attempts to unite forces will be made. The ultra-Orthodox parties, known for their last-minute decision-making, will likely follow their usual pattern. Arab parties remain unpredictable.
However, the main intrigue lies in the center-right. This area includes voters who are disappointed in Netanyahu, not radical enough for Ben-Gvir, not aligned with Smotrich's settlement agenda, and unable to support parties to the left of Likud, especially after October 7. The success of the upcoming elections largely depends on whether the parties in this sector can find common ground and unite.
Why Unite? Reasons and Background
The idea of forming a right-wing liberal bloc was discussed even before the last elections. However, Naftali Bennett retired from politics, Ayelet Shaked ran independently, and Gideon Saar ended up in an unviable alliance with Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot. Avigdor Lieberman continued to rely on his own strength.
This time might be different. Three main reasons support the creation of a right-wing liberal bloc. First, there are many competitors for votes from this bloc, and the risk of losing votes due to parties failing to enter the Knesset is high. Second, as mentioned, there is a strong push for unification. Third and most importantly, without unification, claiming power is impossible.
However, the desire to unite is not enough. Many attempts to create alliances in Israeli politics have failed due to participants' egos and disputes over leadership roles. The same challenges might face the efforts to unite the moderate right forces.
Lieberman and Bennett: A Possible Alliance
Avigdor Lieberman is currently in the spotlight, with his party gaining up to 14 seats in some polls. He is being rewarded for his political tactics and relevant messaging. NDI and Gideon Saar's Yamin Mamlahti remain the only right-wing parties not part of Netanyahu's coalition. Judging by the polls, Israelis currently favor Lieberman over Saar.
While NDI is gaining strength, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is preparing to re-enter politics. His electoral appeal cannot be verified as he currently lacks a party, but many Israelis prefer him as prime minister. In a recent Midgam poll, 39% preferred Bennett, while only 29% preferred Netanyahu.
The elections are still far off, but Lieberman and Bennett will likely debate who should head a joint list. Given their history of rivalry, this competition promises to be intense. Lieberman will not easily share mandates, and Bennett will want to test his leadership at the head of a new party.
Saar: An Ideologue Without Support
After the 1999 elections, Benny Begin temporarily retired from politics, feeling like “a public figure without society.” Similarly, Gideon Saar finds himself in a challenging position after leaving the Mahane Mamlahti bloc and the government. Saar was one of the first to call for a right-wing liberal bloc, and for him, this is now a matter of political survival. He has expressed a willingness to compromise on personal ambitions but currently lacks many options. However, his experience and popularity in Likud should not be underestimated. If Netanyahu were to leave politics, Saar's path might change.
Yossi Cohen: A Wild Card
Little is known about Yossi Cohen's intentions. Unlike Bennett, Saar, and Lieberman, Cohen's views are not well known. An alliance between Netanyahu and Cohen is not impossible, which makes Cohen a wildcard. Cohen’s lack of political baggage might make him an attractive candidate for a right-wing liberal bloc, depending on the findings of the submarine affair inquiry.
Hendel, Shaked, and Others: Waiting for the Election Date
Lieberman, Bennett, and Saar are expected to be the top three leaders of the combined list. However, more leaders are needed to claim power. Ayelet Shaked aims to return to politics, now seemingly closer to the moderate wing than to Bezalel Smotrich and Yariv Levin.
The Miluimniki movement, led by Yoaz Hendel, aims to become a political party before the next elections. Discussions on forming lists and leadership roles will take place once the election date is announced. For now, potential leaders observe poll results and rejoice. A Midgam poll gives the hypothetical Lieberman-Saar-Bennett-Cohen alliance 25 seats, ahead of Likud (18), Machane Mamlachti (17), and Yesh Atid (13). Another poll by Reshet TV gives this alliance 34 seats, with over 50% of Newsru.co.il readers expressing potential support. This illustrates the current sentiment of Israelis toward the political situation in Israel.
