By Gabi Wolfson, Political Correspondent for Newsru.co.il
Netanyahu, Trump, and a Changing Political Landscape
On February 3, just 30 hours before the highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, a group of journalists gathered in a corridor of the Knesset to discuss the future of Israel's government coalition. The focal point of the discussion was Bezalel Smotrich, whose political dilemma seemed to mirror Netanyahu’s own. Netanyahu faced a choice between aligning with Trump and continuing the deal with Hamas or maintaining the coalition. For Smotrich, the decision was whether to bring down the most right-wing government in Israel’s history or remain finance minister in a government perceived as failing to defeat Hamas.
The Washington Summit: Promises and Ambiguities
Netanyahu's visit to Washington altered the political landscape, though not as dramatically as some right-wing politicians hoped. Trump's statements remained largely ambiguous, offering little clarity on how the U.S. president plans to implement his proposal for relocating Gaza residents. Key issues such as the continuation of the deal with Hamas, the removal of Hamas from Gaza, normalization talks with Saudi Arabia, and opposition to Iran’s nuclear ambitions were mentioned as objectives, but concrete steps were scarce.
Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir now face the question of whether to trust the promises of Trump and Netanyahu. Despite his past distrust of Netanyahu, calling him a "liar," Smotrich appeared willing to extend Netanyahu additional political credit following the Washington summit.
Strategic U.S.-Israel Alignment
The meeting underscored shared strategic interests. Just hours before the summit, Trump announced new sanctions on Iran. The day after, the U.S. withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, signaling its support for Israel. Trump’s focus on exerting pressure on the Arab world came with a clear request to Israel: do not disrupt the deal with Hamas.
Challenges in Implementing Trump’s Plan
Few in Israel believe Trump’s plan to relocate Gaza’s residents is feasible in the near term. Both supporters and critics agree that even partial implementation will be extremely challenging.
Meanwhile, the ongoing prisoner exchange deal with Hamas continues, with three more hostages expected to be released this Saturday in exchange for dozens of Palestinian prisoners, including those responsible for attacks on Israelis. Talks for the second phase of the deal are either underway or about to begin, with Israel seeking to extend the timeline of the first phase.
However, the second phase poses significant challenges for Netanyahu’s coalition. Israel is expected to withdraw from the "Philadelphi Corridor" on the eighth day of the second phase, and Hamas will demand the release of prisoners responsible for severe attacks. Trump’s general statements about removing Hamas from Gaza are contrasted with the specific demands placed on Israel.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir: Walking a Tightrope
Smotrich issued a statement after the meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the right-wing government. His reassurance to Netanyahu eased immediate coalition tensions, but it remains to be seen whether Smotrich can reignite pressure if needed. Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, has taken a similar stance, viewing Trump’s endorsement of relocating Gaza residents as a validation of his long-standing position.
Despite publicly distancing himself from the government, Ben-Gvir continues to demand concrete actions against Hamas. As long as his party, Otzma Yehudit, refrains from actively opposing the government, Netanyahu has little reason to worry.
Opposition Reaction: A Temporary Setback
The opposition was initially optimistic that the summit would highlight tensions within Netanyahu’s coalition. Instead, they were met with the sight of two leaders seemingly in sync. Left-centrist parties are in a difficult position—unable to support Trump’s transfer proposal but reluctant to criticize the U.S. president directly. Avigdor Lieberman quickly praised Trump’s proposal, while opposition leader Yair Lapid offered only vague comments, suggesting Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.
Shifting Political Dynamics
A recent poll by Reshet Channel shows shifting support within the opposition. Lapid’s Yesh Atid has dropped to eight seats, one of its lowest standings. In contrast, Yair Golan’s party and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu have gained traction, with 12 and 16 seats, respectively.
Naftali Bennett is also waiting in the wings. According to the same poll, his entry into the political arena could deny Netanyahu’s Likud a victory in future elections. For now, Bennett remains silent, observing how the Washington visit has bolstered Netanyahu’s coalition.
The Draft Law: A Looming Crisis
Next week, the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee will hold two sessions to discuss the draft law exempting yeshiva students from military service. The meetings are expected to be lengthy, with little indication that a compromise will be reached. The ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, face a critical choice: push for the draft law or risk a coalition collapse.
The deadline for passing the state budget in late March coincides with the end of the first phase of the Hamas deal. While the immediate threat to the coalition has been mitigated, the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
Netanyahu will soon give an interview to Channel 14, strategically timed to counter an interview with former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Keshet. The political maneuvering is far from over, and the future of the coalition remains uncertain.
Stay tuned to News of Israel for ongoing updates on the evolving political situation.
